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OBR · Historical official forecasts database

Borrowing forecasts, per cent of GDP

Year ending March 2025 Final

5.2%per cent of GDP

Borrowing forecasts, per cent of GDP was 5.2% in the year ending March 2025, up 0.4 percentage points from 4.8% in the year ending March 2024.

▲ 7.8% · +0.4% against Year ending March 2024 (previous period)

  1. OBR rate
  2. Year ending March 2025
  3. published 26 March 2026
  4. PSNB
  5. row “Outturn data*”
  6. column “2024-25”
  7. cell value 5.2058932093533

The series is rising. Rule: up 7.8% from Year ending March 2024 to Year ending March 2025.

Year ending March 1977 to Year ending March 2025

Borrowing forecasts, per cent of GDP: Year ending March 1977 to Year ending March 2025ConservativeConservativeConservativeConservativeLabourLabourLabourLabourCoalitionConservativeConservativeConservativeLabour0%5%10%19801990200020102020Year ending March 1977: 4.9% per cent of GDP · published 26 March 2026Year ending March 1978: 3.9% per cent of GDP · published 26 March 2026Year ending March 1979: 4.5% per cent of GDP · published 26 March 2026Year ending March 1980: 3.7% per cent of GDP · published 26 March 2026Year ending March 1981: 4.3% per cent of GDP · published 26 March 2026Year ending March 1982: 2% per cent of GDP · published 26 March 2026Year ending March 1983: 2.6% per cent of GDP · published 26 March 2026Year ending March 1984: 3.3% per cent of GDP · published 26 March 2026Year ending March 1985: 3.2% per cent of GDP · published 26 March 2026Year ending March 1986: 2.1% per cent of GDP · published 26 March 2026Year ending March 1987: 1.9% per cent of GDP · published 26 March 2026Year ending March 1988: 1% per cent of GDP · published 26 March 2026Year ending March 1989: -1% per cent of GDP · published 26 March 2026Year ending March 1990: 0% per cent of GDP · published 26 March 2026Year ending March 1991: 1.1% per cent of GDP · published 26 March 2026Year ending March 1992: 3.3% per cent of GDP · published 26 March 2026Year ending March 1993: 6.3% per cent of GDP · published 26 March 2026Year ending March 1994: 6.6% per cent of GDP · published 26 March 2026Year ending March 1995: 5.3% per cent of GDP · published 26 March 2026Year ending March 1996: 4.1% per cent of GDP · published 26 March 2026Year ending March 1997: 3.1% per cent of GDP · published 26 March 2026Year ending March 1998: 1.1% per cent of GDP · published 26 March 2026Year ending March 1999: 0% per cent of GDP · published 26 March 2026Year ending March 2000: -1.1% per cent of GDP · published 26 March 2026Year ending March 2001: -1.5% per cent of GDP · published 26 March 2026Year ending March 2002: 0.5% per cent of GDP · published 26 March 2026Year ending March 2003: 2.9% per cent of GDP · published 26 March 2026Year ending March 2004: 3.4% per cent of GDP · published 26 March 2026Year ending March 2005: 3.8% per cent of GDP · published 26 March 2026Year ending March 2006: 3.2% per cent of GDP · published 26 March 2026Year ending March 2007: 2.7% per cent of GDP · published 26 March 2026Year ending March 2008: 2.9% per cent of GDP · published 26 March 2026Year ending March 2009: 7.3% per cent of GDP · published 26 March 2026Year ending March 2010: 10.2% per cent of GDP · published 26 March 2026Year ending March 2011: 8.7% per cent of GDP · published 26 March 2026Year ending March 2012: 7.3% per cent of GDP · published 26 March 2026Year ending March 2013: 7.1% per cent of GDP · published 26 March 2026Year ending March 2014: 5.7% per cent of GDP · published 26 March 2026Year ending March 2015: 5.2% per cent of GDP · published 26 March 2026Year ending March 2016: 4.2% per cent of GDP · published 26 March 2026Year ending March 2017: 2.8% per cent of GDP · published 26 March 2026Year ending March 2018: 2.8% per cent of GDP · published 26 March 2026Year ending March 2019: 2% per cent of GDP · published 26 March 2026Year ending March 2020: 2.6% per cent of GDP · published 26 March 2026Year ending March 2021: 14.7% per cent of GDP · published 26 March 2026Year ending March 2022: 5% per cent of GDP · published 26 March 2026Year ending March 2023: 4.8% per cent of GDP · published 26 March 2026Year ending March 2024: 4.8% per cent of GDP · published 26 March 2026Year ending March 2025: 5.2% per cent of GDP · published 26 March 2026
Published valueProvisional or revisedLatestShaded bands: governments (see labels)Hover or use arrow keys to read a value

What this measures

Public sector net borrowing as a share of GDP: the outturn as the OBR last knew it, with every official forecast for the same year stored by the month it was made.

What this doesn’t measure

The latest ONS estimate of borrowing, which can differ after revisions and classification changes.

Important caveat

Each forecast vintage uses the definitions and classifications in force when it was made, so the outturn the OBR shows beside it may differ from today's ONS series after later classification changes and revisions. The outturn row is the figure as the OBR knew it at its most recent forecast, not the latest ONS estimate. Forecasts before June 2010 were produced by HM Treasury, not the OBR. Fiscal series are financial years; economy series are calendar years. A forecast is a statement of uncertainty made at the time and is stored as an estimate; a miss is not evidence of misconduct.

Revision history

No period of this series has been revised since it was first ingested here. Revisions are recorded automatically when a later release publishes a different figure for the same period.

Source

Publisher
OBR
Publication
Historical official forecasts database
Release
Historical official forecasts database, March 2026, published 26 March 2026
Source file
obr-historical-forecasts-2026-03.xlsx
File SHA-256
e00b17cb7ec8dfddc4bfd4d212c1e93362147fff81d74a10480e599b26e634db
Retrieved
3 September 2026
Sheet
PSNB
Table
PSNB
Row
Outturn data*
Column
2024-25
Cell value
5.2058932093533
Geography
United Kingdom
Unit
per cent of GDP
API
/api/metrics/obr_forecast_psnb_gdp · /series · /vintages

Related metrics

Government periods

Change during each government, from the level inherited to the last complete period before it left office. Describes the period; does not attribute cause.

Conservative 2019–20242%Year ending March 20194.8%Year ending March 2024↑ 138.7%
Conservative 2017–20192.8%Year ending March 20172%Year ending March 2019↓ 28.2%
Conservative 2015–20175.2%Year ending March 20152.8%Year ending March 2017↓ 45.4%
Coalition 2010–201510.2%Year ending March 20105.2%Year ending March 2015↓ 49.3%
Labour 2005–20103.8%Year ending March 200510.2%Year ending March 2010↑ 165.5%
Labour 2001–2005-1.5%Year ending March 20013.8%Year ending March 2005↑ 363.2%
Labour 1997–20013.1%Year ending March 1997-1.5%Year ending March 2001↓ 146.7%
Conservative 1992–19973.3%Year ending March 19923.1%Year ending March 1997↓ 5.9%
Conservative 1987–19921.9%Year ending March 19873.3%Year ending March 1992↑ 73.1%
Conservative 1983–19872.6%Year ending March 19831.9%Year ending March 1987↓ 26.5%
Conservative 1979–19834.5%Year ending March 19792.6%Year ending March 1983↓ 42.3%

Full comparison with chart

Release
Historical official forecasts database, March 2026 · publication page
Last updated
26 March 2026
Next release expected
Not yet announced (estimated from the usual cadence)