Civometry

OBR · Historical official forecasts database

Welfare spending forecasts

Year ending March 2025 Final

£314.8bnbillion

Welfare spending forecasts was £314.8bn in the year ending March 2025, up 6.2% (£18.4bn) from £296.4bn in the year ending March 2024.

▲ 6.2% · +£18.4bn against Year ending March 2024 (previous period)

  1. OBR count
  2. Year ending March 2025
  3. published 26 March 2026
  4. Total welfare
  5. row “Outturn data*”
  6. column “2024-25”
  7. cell value 314.75931821253016

Year ending March 2025 is the highest figure in the published series: £314.8bn. Rule: highest of the 15 periods published here (Year ending March 2011 to Year ending March 2025).

Year ending March 2011 to Year ending March 2025

Welfare spending forecasts: Year ending March 2011 to Year ending March 2025CoalitionCoalitionConservativeConservativeConservativeConservativeConservativeLabour0100200300201520202025Year ending March 2011: £197.6bn £ billion · published 26 March 2026Year ending March 2012: £205.3bn £ billion · published 26 March 2026Year ending March 2013: £213bn £ billion · published 26 March 2026Year ending March 2014: £209.3bn £ billion · published 26 March 2026Year ending March 2015: £213.9bn £ billion · published 26 March 2026Year ending March 2016: £216.3bn £ billion · published 26 March 2026Year ending March 2017: £216.7bn £ billion · published 26 March 2026Year ending March 2018: £218.8bn £ billion · published 26 March 2026Year ending March 2019: £222.5bn £ billion · published 26 March 2026Year ending March 2020: £227bn £ billion · published 26 March 2026Year ending March 2021: £245.4bn £ billion · published 26 March 2026Year ending March 2022: £244.3bn £ billion · published 26 March 2026Year ending March 2023: £261.5bn £ billion · published 26 March 2026Year ending March 2024: £296.4bn £ billion · published 26 March 2026Year ending March 2025: £314.8bn £ billion · published 26 March 2026
Published valueProvisional or revisedLatestShaded bands: governments (see labels)Hover or use arrow keys to read a value

What this measures

Total welfare spending in cash terms, inside and outside the welfare cap: the outturn as the OBR last knew it, with every official forecast for the same year.

What this doesn’t measure

Any single benefit, or the number of claimants.

Important caveat

Each forecast vintage uses the definitions and classifications in force when it was made, so the outturn the OBR shows beside it may differ from today's ONS series after later classification changes and revisions. The outturn row is the figure as the OBR knew it at its most recent forecast, not the latest ONS estimate. Forecasts before June 2010 were produced by HM Treasury, not the OBR. Fiscal series are financial years; economy series are calendar years. A forecast is a statement of uncertainty made at the time and is stored as an estimate; a miss is not evidence of misconduct.

Revision history

No period of this series has been revised since it was first ingested here. Revisions are recorded automatically when a later release publishes a different figure for the same period.

Source

Publisher
OBR
Publication
Historical official forecasts database
Release
Historical official forecasts database, March 2026, published 26 March 2026
Source file
obr-historical-forecasts-2026-03.xlsx
File SHA-256
e00b17cb7ec8dfddc4bfd4d212c1e93362147fff81d74a10480e599b26e634db
Retrieved
3 September 2026
Sheet
Total welfare
Table
Total welfare
Row
Outturn data*
Column
2024-25
Cell value
314.75931821253016
Geography
United Kingdom
Unit
£ billion
API
/api/metrics/obr_forecast_welfare · /series · /vintages

Related metrics

Government periods

Change during each government, from the level inherited to the last complete period before it left office. Describes the period; does not attribute cause.

Conservative 2019–2024£222.5bnYear ending March 2019£296.4bnYear ending March 2024↑ 33.2%
Conservative 2017–2019£216.7bnYear ending March 2017£222.5bnYear ending March 2019↑ 2.7%
Conservative 2015–2017£213.9bnYear ending March 2015£216.7bnYear ending March 2017↑ 1.3%

Full comparison with chart

Release
Historical official forecasts database, March 2026 · publication page
Last updated
26 March 2026
Next release expected
Not yet announced (estimated from the usual cadence)