Welfare spending forecasts: record highs and lows
The extremes of welfare spending forecasts as published by OBR, across the 15 periods held here (Year ending March 2011 to Year ending March 2025). Each record is a published figure, not a computed one, and the scope is this series — not “ever”.
The latest figure, £314.8bn in Year ending March 2025, is the highest in the whole published series of 15 periods. The rule: a period counts as beaten only when its figure is strictly below the latest, and the claim is only made when it reaches back at least five years.
Highest published
£314.8bnYear ending March 2025
Lowest published
£197.6bnYear ending March 2011
The full series
The chart as a table
| Period | Welfare spending forecasts |
|---|---|
| Year ending March 2011 | £197.6bn |
| Year ending March 2012 | £205.3bn |
| Year ending March 2013 | £213bn |
| Year ending March 2014 | £209.3bn |
| Year ending March 2015 | £213.9bn |
| Year ending March 2016 | £216.3bn |
| Year ending March 2017 | £216.7bn |
| Year ending March 2018 | £218.8bn |
| Year ending March 2019 | £222.5bn |
| Year ending March 2020 | £227bn |
| Year ending March 2021 | £245.4bn |
| Year ending March 2022 | £244.3bn |
| Year ending March 2023 | £261.5bn |
| Year ending March 2024 | £296.4bn |
| Year ending March 2025 | £314.8bn |
What a record here is, and is not
A record is the extreme of the periods this site holds for the current series, at each period’s newest published release. Earlier series measured under different methods are not compared against it. Money is in cash terms: a record set years ago stands against the money of its own year.