149 findings across 119 series

Trend breaks

Where a series has just departed from what came before: the first fall in years, a reversal after a long run, the largest annual move in the series, a value at the top or bottom of everything published. Each finding names the rule that produced it and how far back it looked. A departure is a departure; the page does not call it a turning point, and does not judge it.

First fall sinceFirst rise sinceReversal after a runLargest annual move sinceUnusually large annual moveHighest in the seriesLowest in the series

First fall since 11

The latest period-on-period move is a fall, and the last fall was at least three years and two years' worth of periods ago; every move between rose or was unchanged.

SeriesLatestThe moveRule as appliedChecked fromPublished
Spending on education, real termsHM Treasury£125.7bnYear ending March 2026down 1.2% on Year ending March 2025the first annual fall since Year ending March 2017; every move between rose or was unchangedYear ending March 20179 periods2 September 2026
Enforced returnsHome Office9,669Year ending June 2026down 2.4% on 2025the first annual fall since 2021; every move between rose or was unchanged20216 periods27 August 2026
Visitor visas grantedHome Office2,185,158Year ending June 2026down 2.4% on 2025the first annual fall since 2021; every move between rose or was unchanged20216 periods27 August 2026
Earnings growth forecastsOBR5.1%2024down 1.1 points on 2023the first annual fall since 2020; every move between rose or was unchanged20204 periods26 March 2026
Borrowing since 1900, per cent of GDPOBR4.2%Year ending March 2026down 0.9 points on Year ending March 2025the first annual fall since Year ending March 2023; every move between rose or was unchangedYear ending March 20233 periods27 August 2026
Change in average Band D council taxMHCLG5%Year ending March 2026down 0.1 points on Year ending March 2025the first annual fall since Year ending March 2023; every move between rose or was unchangedYear ending March 20233 periods25 March 2026
Crime Survey estimate of all crime (excluding fraud)ONS4,333,000Year ending March 2026down 5.7% on Year ending March 2025the first annual fall since Year ending March 2023; every move between rose or was unchangedYear ending March 20233 periods23 July 2026
Crime Survey estimate of theftONS2,628,000Year ending March 2026down 6.2% on Year ending March 2025the first annual fall since Year ending March 2023; every move between rose or was unchangedYear ending March 20233 periods23 July 2026
Crown Court open casesMinistry of Justice80,0612026 Q1down 0.0% on 2025 Q4the first quarterly fall since 2023 Q1; every move between rose or was unchanged2023 Q112 periods25 June 2026
Education spending as a share of GDPHM Treasury4.1%Year ending March 2026down 0.1 points on Year ending March 2025the first annual fall since Year ending March 2023; every move between rose or was unchangedYear ending March 20233 periods2 September 2026
People entering immigration detentionHome Office22,037Year ending June 2026down 4.5% on 2025the first annual fall since 2023; every move between rose or was unchanged20234 periods27 August 2026

First rise since 9

The latest move is a rise, and the last rise was at least three years and two years' worth of periods ago; every move between fell or was unchanged.

SeriesLatestThe moveRule as appliedChecked fromPublished
Fuel duty receiptsHMRC£24.6bnYear ending March 2026up 0.8% on Year ending March 2025the first annual rise since Year ending March 2022; every move between fell or was unchangedYear ending March 20224 periods21 August 2026
Capital Gains Tax receiptsHMRC£24.3bnYear ending March 2026up 77.6% on Year ending March 2025the first annual rise since Year ending March 2023; every move between fell or was unchangedYear ending March 20233 periods21 August 2026
GDP growth forecastsOBR1.1%2024up 0.8 points on 2023the first annual rise since 2021; every move between fell or was unchanged20213 periods26 March 2026
Inflation forecastsOBR3.4%2025up 0.8 points on 2024the first annual rise since 2022; every move between fell or was unchanged20223 periods26 March 2026
Spending on economic affairsHM Treasury£94bnYear ending March 2026up 6.8% on Year ending March 2025the first annual rise since Year ending March 2023; every move between fell or was unchangedYear ending March 20233 periods2 September 2026
Spending on general public servicesHM Treasury£165.5bnYear ending March 2026up 3.3% on Year ending March 2025the first annual rise since Year ending March 2023; every move between fell or was unchangedYear ending March 20233 periods2 September 2026
Spending on public sector debt interestHM Treasury£130.3bnYear ending March 2026up 3.0% on Year ending March 2025the first annual rise since Year ending March 2023; every move between fell or was unchangedYear ending March 20233 periods2 September 2026
Total managed expenditure as a share of GDPHM Treasury44.3%Year ending March 2026up 0.3 points on Year ending March 2025the first annual rise since Year ending March 2023; every move between fell or was unchangedYear ending March 20233 periods2 September 2026
Violence against the person (police-recorded)ONS1,962,413Year ending March 2026up 1.3% on Year ending March 2025the first annual rise since Year ending March 2023; every move between fell or was unchangedYear ending March 20233 periods23 July 2026

Reversal after a run 16

The latest move runs against a run of at least three consecutive moves the other way.

SeriesLatestThe moveRule as appliedChecked fromPublished
Crown Court open casesMinistry of Justice80,0612026 Q1down 0.0% on 2025 Q4a fall after 11 consecutive quarterly rises2023 Q112 periods25 June 2026
Spending on education, real termsHM Treasury£125.7bnYear ending March 2026down 1.2% on Year ending March 2025a fall after 8 consecutive annual risesYear ending March 20179 periods2 September 2026
Enforced returnsHome Office9,669Year ending June 2026down 2.4% on 2025a fall after 5 consecutive annual rises20216 periods27 August 2026
Public sector net debtONS£2.98tnJuly 2026down 0.3% on June 2026a fall after 5 consecutive monthly risesJanuary 20266 periods20 August 2026
Public sector net debt as a share of GDPONS94.1%July 2026down 0.5 points on June 2026a fall after 5 consecutive monthly risesJanuary 20266 periods20 August 2026
Visitor visas grantedHome Office2,185,158Year ending June 2026down 2.4% on 2025a fall after 5 consecutive annual rises20216 periods27 August 2026
Consumer Prices Index: communication (division 08)ONS149.6July 2026down 0.1% on June 2026a fall after 4 consecutive monthly risesFebruary 20265 periods18 August 2026
Consumer Prices Index: recreation and culture (division 09)ONS136.3July 2026down 0.1% on June 2026a fall after 4 consecutive monthly risesFebruary 20265 periods18 August 2026
Prison population on remandMinistry of Justice15,386June 2026up 0.6% on May 2026a rise after 4 consecutive monthly fallsJanuary 20265 periods30 July 2026
A&E four-hour standardNHS England75.4%July 2026up 0.4 points on June 2026a rise after 3 consecutive monthly fallsMarch 20264 periods13 August 2026
Council investments heldMHCLG£47.6bn2026 Q2up 19.8% on 2026 Q1a rise after 3 consecutive quarterly falls2025 Q24 periods3 September 2026
Debt interest paidONS£10.3bnJuly 2026down 28.5% on June 2026a fall after 3 consecutive monthly risesMarch 20264 periods20 August 2026
Earnings growth forecastsOBR5.1%2024down 1.1 points on 2023a fall after 3 consecutive annual rises20204 periods26 March 2026
Fuel duty receiptsHMRC£24.6bnYear ending March 2026up 0.8% on Year ending March 2025a rise after 3 consecutive annual fallsYear ending March 20224 periods21 August 2026
People claiming unemployment-related benefitsONS1,690,970July 2026up 1.1% on June 2026a rise after 3 consecutive monthly fallsMarch 20264 periods18 August 2026
People entering immigration detentionHome Office22,037Year ending June 2026down 4.5% on 2025a fall after 3 consecutive annual rises20234 periods27 August 2026

Largest annual move since 32

The latest year-on-year change is larger than every earlier year-on-year change of the same sign back at least five years, or in the whole series.

SeriesLatestThe moveRule as appliedChecked fromPublished
Asylum claimsHome Office85,891Year ending June 2026down 20.9% on Year ending June 2025the largest year-on-year fall since the year to 2005, across 42 year-on-year changes198442 periods27 August 2026
Band D council tax in ScotlandScottish Government£1,543Year ending March 2026up 8.8% on Year ending March 2025the largest year-on-year rise since the year to Year ending March 1998, across 29 year-on-year changesYear ending March 199729 periods31 March 2026
Disability benefits caseloadDWP6,531,000Year ending March 2025up 9.6% on Year ending March 2024the largest year-on-year rise since the year to Year ending March 1996, across 51 year-on-year changesYear ending March 197451 periods26 March 2026
Public sector receipts since 1900, per cent of GDPOBR40.1%Year ending March 2026up 1.3 points on Year ending March 2025the largest year-on-year rise since the year to Year ending March 1998, across 125 year-on-year changesYear ending March 1901125 periods27 August 2026
Capital Gains Tax receiptsHMRC£24.3bnYear ending March 2026up 77.6% on Year ending March 2025the largest year-on-year rise in the series, which begins in Year ending March 2007, across 19 year-on-year changesYear ending March 200719 periods21 August 2026
National Insurance receiptsHMRC£200.8bnYear ending March 2026up 16.4% on Year ending March 2025the largest year-on-year rise in the series, which begins in Year ending March 2007, across 19 year-on-year changesYear ending March 200719 periods21 August 2026
Asylum backlogHome Office40,168Year ending June 2026down 55.8% on Year ending June 2025the largest year-on-year fall in the series, which begins in 2010, across 16 year-on-year changes201016 periods27 August 2026
Asylum seekers receiving supportHome Office93,293Year ending June 2026down 12.0% on Year ending June 2025the largest year-on-year fall in the series, which begins in 2010, across 16 year-on-year changes201016 periods27 August 2026
National Insurance forecastsOBR£171.4bnYear ending March 2025down 4.3% on Year ending March 2024the largest year-on-year fall in the series, which begins in Year ending March 2009, across 16 year-on-year changesYear ending March 200916 periods26 March 2026
State Pension caseloadDWP12,987,000Year ending March 2025up 1.7% on Year ending March 2024the largest year-on-year rise since the year to Year ending March 2010, across 69 year-on-year changesYear ending March 195669 periods26 March 2026
Persistent absenceDepartment for Education18.1%2024/25 academic yeardown 1.8 points on 2023/24 academic yearthe largest year-on-year fall since the year to 2013/14 academic year, across 16 year-on-year changes2006/07 academic year16 periods4 August 2026
Pupils persistently absentDepartment for Education1,340,4372024/25 academic yeardown 9.9% on 2023/24 academic yearthe largest year-on-year fall since the year to 2013/14 academic year, across 16 year-on-year changes2006/07 academic year16 periods4 August 2026
Crime Survey estimate of violenceONS989,000Year ending March 2026down 10.3% on Year ending March 2025the largest year-on-year fall since the year to Year ending March 2016, across 21 year-on-year changes198121 periods23 July 2026
Pupils in primary school classesDepartment for Education3,974,1322025/26 academic yeardown 2.7% on 2024/25 academic yearthe largest year-on-year fall in the series, which begins in 2015/16 academic year, across 10 year-on-year changes2015/16 academic year10 periods4 August 2026
Pupils in secondary school classesDepartment for Education3,359,9272025/26 academic yeardown 0.3% on 2024/25 academic yearthe largest year-on-year fall in the series, which begins in 2015/16 academic year, across 10 year-on-year changes2015/16 academic year10 periods4 August 2026
Pupils with an EHC plan, shareDepartment for Education6%2025/26 academic yearup 0.7 points on 2024/25 academic yearthe largest year-on-year rise in the series, which begins in 2015/16 academic year, across 10 year-on-year changes2015/16 academic year10 periods4 August 2026
Carer's Allowance caseloadDWP1,325,000Year ending March 2025up 5.3% on Year ending March 2024the largest year-on-year rise since the year to Year ending March 2016, across 46 year-on-year changesYear ending March 194946 periods26 March 2026
Crimes and offences recorded in Scotland per 10,000 peopleScottish Government568.5Year ending March 2026up 5.4% on Year ending March 2025the largest year-on-year rise in the series, which begins in Year ending March 2017, across 9 year-on-year changesYear ending March 20179 periods23 June 2026
Crimes recorded by the police in ScotlandScottish Government315,357Year ending March 2026up 5.4% on Year ending March 2025the largest year-on-year rise in the series, which begins in Year ending March 2017, across 9 year-on-year changesYear ending March 20179 periods23 June 2026
Household income forecastsOBR4.1%2024up 3.2 points on 2023the largest year-on-year rise since the year to 2015, across 15 year-on-year changes200915 periods26 March 2026
Spending on education, real termsHM Treasury£125.7bnYear ending March 2026down 1.2% on Year ending March 2025the largest year-on-year fall since the year to Year ending March 2017, across 23 year-on-year changesYear ending March 200323 periods2 September 2026
Crime Survey estimate of all crime (excluding fraud)ONS4,333,000Year ending March 2026down 5.7% on Year ending March 2025the largest year-on-year fall since the year to Year ending March 2020, across 21 year-on-year changes198121 periods23 July 2026
Crime Survey estimate of theftONS2,628,000Year ending March 2026down 6.2% on Year ending March 2025the largest year-on-year fall since the year to Year ending March 2020, across 21 year-on-year changes198121 periods23 July 2026
Asylum refusals by nationalityHome Office12,9702026 Q2down 33.5% on 2025 Q2the largest year-on-year fall since the year to 2021 Q4, across 98 year-on-year changes2001 Q198 periods27 August 2026
Average primary class sizeDepartment for Education26.12025/26 academic yeardown 1.2% on 2024/25 academic yearthe largest year-on-year fall since the year to 2020/21 academic year, across 10 year-on-year changes2015/16 academic year10 periods4 August 2026
Average secondary class sizeDepartment for Education22.62025/26 academic yearup 0.4% on 2024/25 academic yearthe largest year-on-year rise since the year to 2020/21 academic year, across 10 year-on-year changes2015/16 academic year10 periods4 August 2026
Custody rateMinistry of Justice7.5%Year ending March 2026up 0.6 points on Year ending March 2025the largest year-on-year rise since the year to Year ending March 2021, across 10 year-on-year changesYear ending March 201610 periods30 July 2026
Entry clearance visas refusedHome Office155,4682026 Q2down 10.6% on 2025 Q2the largest year-on-year fall since the year to 2021 Q1, across 82 year-on-year changes2005 Q182 periods27 August 2026
Housing support caseloadDWP2,072,000Year ending March 2025down 11.9% on Year ending March 2024the largest year-on-year fall since the year to Year ending March 2020, across 46 year-on-year changesYear ending March 197946 periods26 March 2026
Theft offences (police-recorded)ONS1,637,773Year ending March 2026down 7.9% on Year ending March 2025the largest year-on-year fall since the year to Year ending March 2021, across 127 year-on-year changes1898127 periods23 July 2026
Vehicle offences (police-recorded)ONS312,250Year ending March 2026down 10.8% on Year ending March 2025the largest year-on-year fall since the year to Year ending March 2021, across 23 year-on-year changesYear ending March 200323 periods23 July 2026
Visitor visas grantedHome Office2,185,158Year ending June 2026down 1.5% on Year ending June 2025the largest year-on-year fall since the year to 2021, across 12 year-on-year changes201412 periods27 August 2026

Unusually large annual move 1

The latest year-on-year change is at least two standard deviations from the mean of the series' own year-on-year changes (ten or more of them).

SeriesLatestThe moveRule as appliedChecked fromPublished
A&E four-hour standardNHS England75.4%July 2026down 1.0 point on July 20252.0 standard deviations from the mean of the 26 year-on-year changes in the series, which begins in June 2023June 202326 periods13 August 2026

Highest in the series 71

The latest value is the highest of every period in the series since its last methodology break; the series' start is named.

SeriesLatestThe moveRule as appliedChecked fromPublished
A&E attendancesNHS England2,487,580July 2026up 2.0% on June 2026highest value among the 72 periods in the series, which begins in August 2020August 202072 periods13 August 2026
Adult proven reoffending rateMinistry of Justice29.7%2024 Q3up 0.3 points on 2024 Q2highest value among the 36 periods in the series, which begins in 2015 Q42015 Q436 periods30 July 2026
Asylum-related returnsHome Office12,568Year ending June 2026up 1.4% on 2025highest value among the 18 periods in the series, which begins in 2010201018 periods27 August 2026
Average Band D council taxMHCLG£2,280Year ending March 2026up 5.0% on Year ending March 2025highest value among the 15 periods in the series, which begins in Year ending March 2012Year ending March 201215 periods25 March 2026
Average house priceHM Land Registry£272,188June 2026up 0.1% on May 2026highest value among the 699 periods in the series, which begins in April 1968April 1968699 periods20 August 2026
Average private rent a monthONS£1,393July 2026up 0.4% on June 2026highest value among the 139 periods in the series, which begins in January 2015January 2015139 periods19 August 2026
Average secondary class sizeDepartment for Education22.62025/26 academic yearup 0.4% on 2024/25 academic yearhighest value among the 11 periods in the series, which begins in 2015/16 academic year2015/16 academic year11 periods4 August 2026
Average weekly payONS£7532026 Q2up 0.7% on 2026 Q1highest value among the 106 periods in the series, which begins in 2000 Q12000 Q1106 periods17 August 2026
Band D council tax in ScotlandScottish Government£1,543Year ending March 2026up 8.8% on Year ending March 2025highest value among the 30 periods in the series, which begins in Year ending March 1997Year ending March 199730 periods31 March 2026
Benefit expenditure on pensionersDWP£164.9bnYear ending March 2025up 6.3% on Year ending March 2024highest value among the 47 periods in the series, which begins in Year ending March 1979Year ending March 197947 periods26 March 2026
Benefit expenditure on working-age peopleDWP£119.8bnYear ending March 2025up 10.0% on Year ending March 2024highest value among the 47 periods in the series, which begins in Year ending March 1979Year ending March 197947 periods26 March 2026
Capital Gains Tax receiptsHMRC£24.3bnYear ending March 2026up 77.6% on Year ending March 2025highest value among the 20 periods in the series, which begins in Year ending March 2007Year ending March 200720 periods21 August 2026
Carer's Allowance caseloadDWP1,325,000Year ending March 2025up 5.3% on Year ending March 2024highest value among the 77 periods in the series, which begins in Year ending March 1949Year ending March 194977 periods26 March 2026
Carer's Allowance expenditureDWP£4.2bnYear ending March 2025up 13.4% on Year ending March 2024highest value among the 77 periods in the series, which begins in Year ending March 1949Year ending March 194977 periods26 March 2026
Consumer Prices IndexONS142.9July 2026up 0.3% on June 2026highest value among the 463 periods in the series, which begins in January 1988January 1988463 periods18 August 2026
Consumer Prices Index: health (division 06)ONS143.9July 2026up 0.4% on June 2026highest value among the 463 periods in the series, which begins in January 1988January 1988463 periods18 August 2026
Consumer Prices Index: housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels (division 04)ONS153.2July 2026up 2.3% on June 2026highest value among the 463 periods in the series, which begins in January 1988January 1988463 periods18 August 2026
Consumer Prices Index: miscellaneous goods and services (division 12)ONS126.6July 2026up 0.1% on June 2026highest value among the 463 periods in the series, which begins in January 1988January 1988463 periods18 August 2026
Consumer Prices Index: restaurants and hotels (division 11)ONS157July 2026up 0.1% on June 2026highest value among the 463 periods in the series, which begins in January 1988January 1988463 periods18 August 2026
Corporation Tax receiptsHMRC£95.1bnYear ending March 2026up 4.6% on Year ending March 2025highest value among the 20 periods in the series, which begins in Year ending March 2007Year ending March 200720 periods21 August 2026
Crimes and offences recorded in Scotland per 10,000 peopleScottish Government568.5Year ending March 2026up 5.4% on Year ending March 2025highest value among the 10 periods in the series, which begins in Year ending March 2017Year ending March 201710 periods23 June 2026
Crimes recorded by the police in ScotlandScottish Government315,357Year ending March 2026up 5.4% on Year ending March 2025highest value among the 10 periods in the series, which begins in Year ending March 2017Year ending March 201710 periods23 June 2026
Disability benefits caseloadDWP6,531,000Year ending March 2025up 9.6% on Year ending March 2024highest value among the 52 periods in the series, which begins in Year ending March 1974Year ending March 197452 periods26 March 2026
Disability benefits expenditureDWP£41.7bnYear ending March 2025up 17.5% on Year ending March 2024highest value among the 77 periods in the series, which begins in Year ending March 1949Year ending March 194977 periods26 March 2026
Employment forecastsOBR33,615,5002024up 0.8% on 2023highest value among the 16 periods in the series, which begins in 2009200916 periods26 March 2026
GDP per head, real termsONS£10,2342026 Q2up 0.4% on 2026 Q1highest value among the 286 periods in the series, which begins in 1955 Q11955 Q1286 periods12 August 2026
Great Britain populationONS67,353,5822024up 1.1% on 2023highest value among the 88 periods in the series, which begins in 1937193788 periods26 September 2025
Gross domestic product, real termsONS£712.5bn2026 Q2up 0.4% on 2026 Q1highest value among the 286 periods in the series, which begins in 1955 Q11955 Q1286 periods12 August 2026
Housing support expenditureDWP£36bnYear ending March 2025up 11.9% on Year ending March 2024highest value among the 77 periods in the series, which begins in Year ending March 1949Year ending March 194977 periods26 March 2026
Incapacity benefits caseloadDWP3,549,000Year ending March 2025up 7.8% on Year ending March 2024highest value among the 77 periods in the series, which begins in Year ending March 1949Year ending March 194977 periods26 March 2026
Incapacity benefits expenditureDWP£29.7bnYear ending March 2025up 17.1% on Year ending March 2024highest value among the 77 periods in the series, which begins in Year ending March 1949Year ending March 194977 periods26 March 2026
Income tax forecastsOBR£305.9bnYear ending March 2025up 10.4% on Year ending March 2024highest value among the 17 periods in the series, which begins in Year ending March 2009Year ending March 200917 periods26 March 2026
Income Tax receiptsHMRC£326.9bnYear ending March 2026up 8.0% on Year ending March 2025highest value among the 20 periods in the series, which begins in Year ending March 2007Year ending March 200720 periods21 August 2026
Inheritance Tax receiptsHMRC£8.5bnYear ending March 2026up 2.6% on Year ending March 2025highest value among the 20 periods in the series, which begins in Year ending March 2007Year ending March 200720 periods21 August 2026
Licensed carsDepartment for Transport34,627,4142026 Q1up 0.4% on 2025 Q4highest value among the 47 periods in the series, which begins in 2014 Q32014 Q347 periods15 July 2026
Licensed vehiclesDepartment for Transport42,448,4812026 Q1up 0.4% on 2025 Q4highest value among the 47 periods in the series, which begins in 2014 Q32014 Q347 periods15 July 2026
Magistrates' court open casesMinistry of Justice370,7222026 Q1up 1.6% on 2025 Q4highest value among the 29 periods in the series, which begins in 2019 Q12019 Q129 periods25 June 2026
Median annual pay, full-time employees, by area of residenceONS£39,0392025up 4.3% on 2024highest value among the 24 periods in the series, which begins in 2002200224 periods23 October 2025
Median weekly pay, full-time employees, by area of residenceONS£7672025up 5.3% on 2024highest value among the 24 periods in the series, which begins in 2002200224 periods23 October 2025
National Insurance receiptsHMRC£200.8bnYear ending March 2026up 16.4% on Year ending March 2025highest value among the 20 periods in the series, which begins in Year ending March 2007Year ending March 200720 periods21 August 2026
Net social benefits paidONS£29.8bnJuly 2026up 3.0% on June 2026highest value among the 352 periods in the series, which begins in April 1997April 1997352 periods20 August 2026
People in employmentONS34,469,0002026 Q2up 0.2% on 2026 Q1highest value among the 222 periods in the series, which begins in 1971 Q11971 Q1222 periods17 August 2026
Possession of weapons (police-recorded)ONS62,347Year ending March 2026up 8.0% on Year ending March 2025highest value among the 24 periods in the series, which begins in Year ending March 2003Year ending March 200324 periods23 July 2026
Proven reoffending rateMinistry of Justice29.9%2024 Q3up 0.3 points on 2024 Q2highest value among the 36 periods in the series, which begins in 2015 Q42015 Q436 periods30 July 2026
Pupils on SEN support, shareDepartment for Education14.8%2025/26 academic yearup 0.6 points on 2024/25 academic yearhighest value among the 11 periods in the series, which begins in 2015/16 academic year2015/16 academic year11 periods4 August 2026
Pupils with an education, health and care planDepartment for Education538,5472025/26 academic yearup 11.6% on 2024/25 academic yearhighest value among the 11 periods in the series, which begins in 2015/16 academic year2015/16 academic year11 periods4 August 2026
Pupils with an EHC plan, shareDepartment for Education6%2025/26 academic yearup 0.7 points on 2024/25 academic yearhighest value among the 11 periods in the series, which begins in 2015/16 academic year2015/16 academic year11 periods4 August 2026
Receipts forecasts, £ billionOBR£1.14tnYear ending March 2025up 3.9% on Year ending March 2024highest value among the 36 periods in the series, which begins in Year ending March 1990Year ending March 199036 periods26 March 2026
Severe absenceDepartment for Education2.4%2024/25 academic yearup 0.1 points on 2023/24 academic yearhighest value among the 18 periods in the series, which begins in 2006/07 academic year2006/07 academic year18 periods4 August 2026
Sexual offences (police-recorded)ONS217,567Year ending March 2026up 4.0% on Year ending March 2025highest value among the 24 periods in the series, which begins in Year ending March 2003Year ending March 200324 periods23 July 2026
Spending forecasts, £ billionOBR£1.29tnYear ending March 2025up 5.0% on Year ending March 2024highest value among the 36 periods in the series, which begins in Year ending March 1990Year ending March 199036 periods26 March 2026
Spending on defenceHM Treasury£65.4bnYear ending March 2026up 2.7% on Year ending March 2025highest value among the 24 periods in the series, which begins in Year ending March 2003Year ending March 200324 periods2 September 2026
Spending on educationHM Treasury£125.7bnYear ending March 2026up 2.2% on Year ending March 2025highest value among the 24 periods in the series, which begins in Year ending March 2003Year ending March 200324 periods2 September 2026
Spending on environment protectionHM Treasury£19.2bnYear ending March 2026up 11.0% on Year ending March 2025highest value among the 24 periods in the series, which begins in Year ending March 2003Year ending March 200324 periods2 September 2026
Spending on healthHM Treasury£257.5bnYear ending March 2026up 6.2% on Year ending March 2025highest value among the 24 periods in the series, which begins in Year ending March 2003Year ending March 200324 periods2 September 2026
Spending on housing and community amenitiesHM Treasury£22.5bnYear ending March 2026up 3.7% on Year ending March 2025highest value among the 24 periods in the series, which begins in Year ending March 2003Year ending March 200324 periods2 September 2026
Spending on public order and safetyHM Treasury£55.7bnYear ending March 2026up 7.5% on Year ending March 2025highest value among the 24 periods in the series, which begins in Year ending March 2003Year ending March 200324 periods2 September 2026
Spending on public order and safety, real termsHM Treasury£55.7bnYear ending March 2026up 4.1% on Year ending March 2025highest value among the 24 periods in the series, which begins in Year ending March 2003Year ending March 200324 periods2 September 2026
Spending on social protectionHM Treasury£407.3bnYear ending March 2026up 5.4% on Year ending March 2025highest value among the 24 periods in the series, which begins in Year ending March 2003Year ending March 200324 periods2 September 2026
Spending on social protection, real termsHM Treasury£407.3bnYear ending March 2026up 1.9% on Year ending March 2025highest value among the 24 periods in the series, which begins in Year ending March 2003Year ending March 200324 periods2 September 2026
State Pension caseloadDWP12,987,000Year ending March 2025up 1.7% on Year ending March 2024highest value among the 70 periods in the series, which begins in Year ending March 1956Year ending March 195670 periods26 March 2026
State Pension expenditureDWP£136.6bnYear ending March 2025up 10.1% on Year ending March 2024highest value among the 77 periods in the series, which begins in Year ending March 1949Year ending March 194977 periods26 March 2026
Total benefit expenditureDWP£289.3bnYear ending March 2025up 8.0% on Year ending March 2024highest value among the 77 periods in the series, which begins in Year ending March 1949Year ending March 194977 periods26 March 2026
Total benefit expenditure, real termsDWP£304.7bnYear ending March 2025up 3.8% on Year ending March 2024highest value among the 77 periods in the series, which begins in Year ending March 1949Year ending March 194977 periods26 March 2026
Total HMRC receiptsHMRC£937.8bnYear ending March 2026up 9.2% on Year ending March 2025highest value among the 20 periods in the series, which begins in Year ending March 2007Year ending March 200720 periods21 August 2026
Total managed expenditureHM Treasury£1.36tnYear ending March 2026up 5.4% on Year ending March 2025highest value among the 24 periods in the series, which begins in Year ending March 2003Year ending March 200324 periods2 September 2026
Total managed expenditure, real termsHM Treasury£1.36tnYear ending March 2026up 1.9% on Year ending March 2025highest value among the 24 periods in the series, which begins in Year ending March 2003Year ending March 200324 periods2 September 2026
UK populationONS69,281,4372024up 1.1% on 2023highest value among the 156 periods in the series, which begins in 18511851156 periods26 September 2025
VAT forecastsOBR£173.3bnYear ending March 2025up 3.0% on Year ending March 2024highest value among the 17 periods in the series, which begins in Year ending March 2009Year ending March 200917 periods26 March 2026
VAT receiptsHMRC£179.9bnYear ending March 2026up 5.2% on Year ending March 2025highest value among the 20 periods in the series, which begins in Year ending March 2007Year ending March 200720 periods21 August 2026
Welfare spending forecastsOBR£314.8bnYear ending March 2025up 6.2% on Year ending March 2024highest value among the 15 periods in the series, which begins in Year ending March 2011Year ending March 201115 periods26 March 2026

Lowest in the series 9

The latest value is the lowest of every period in the series since its last methodology break; the series' start is named.

SeriesLatestThe moveRule as appliedChecked fromPublished
Average primary class sizeDepartment for Education26.12025/26 academic yeardown 1.2% on 2024/25 academic yearlowest value among the 11 periods in the series, which begins in 2015/16 academic year2015/16 academic year11 periods4 August 2026
Crime Survey estimate of all crime (excluding fraud)ONS4,333,000Year ending March 2026down 5.7% on Year ending March 2025lowest value among the 31 periods in the series, which begins in 1981198131 periods23 July 2026
Crime Survey estimate of theftONS2,628,000Year ending March 2026down 6.2% on Year ending March 2025lowest value among the 31 periods in the series, which begins in 1981198131 periods23 July 2026
Crime Survey estimate of violenceONS989,000Year ending March 2026down 10.3% on Year ending March 2025lowest value among the 31 periods in the series, which begins in 1981198131 periods23 July 2026
Criminal damage and arson (police-recorded)ONS456,843Year ending March 2026down 1.3% on Year ending March 2025lowest value among the 24 periods in the series, which begins in Year ending March 2003Year ending March 200324 periods23 July 2026
Housing support caseloadDWP2,072,000Year ending March 2025down 11.9% on Year ending March 2024lowest value among the 47 periods in the series, which begins in Year ending March 1979Year ending March 197947 periods26 March 2026
Pupils in primary school classesDepartment for Education3,974,1322025/26 academic yeardown 2.7% on 2024/25 academic yearlowest value among the 11 periods in the series, which begins in 2015/16 academic year2015/16 academic year11 periods4 August 2026
Tobacco duty receiptsHMRC£7.6bnYear ending March 2026down 4.5% on Year ending March 2025lowest value among the 20 periods in the series, which begins in Year ending March 2007Year ending March 200720 periods21 August 2026
Vehicle offences (police-recorded)ONS312,250Year ending March 2026down 10.8% on Year ending March 2025lowest value among the 24 periods in the series, which begins in Year ending March 2003Year ending March 200324 periods23 July 2026

How this page is made

The rules run over every national series with at least ten periods since its last methodology break, on the newest published figure for each period, with forecast periods removed. A methodology break ends the history a rule may look across, so a “first fall since” never reaches past one. Ties are not records. The order within a rule is the rule’s own lookback or size, longest and largest first.

Related: what is changing · what changed this month · local records · trajectory bands.